Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.017270 0.019595 0.022126 0.025084 0.028451 0.032164 0.036573
2025-04-06 0.013300 0.016408 0.020088 0.024771 0.030583 0.037570 0.046628
2025-04-13 0.010818 0.014122 0.018262 0.023844 0.031192 0.040562 0.053465
2025-04-20 0.009722 0.013294 0.017986 0.024620 0.033792 0.046075 0.063860
2025-04-27 0.008832 0.012572 0.017688 0.025226 0.036100 0.051297 0.074288
2025-05-04 0.008164 0.012045 0.017552 0.025972 0.038592 0.056918 0.085764
2025-05-11 0.007345 0.011193 0.016834 0.025752 0.039590 0.060396 0.094346
2025-05-18 0.006717 0.010547 0.016334 0.025772 0.040895 0.064383 0.104017
2025-05-25 0.006087 0.009825 0.015636 0.025390 0.041492 0.067267 0.112146
2025-06-01 0.005702 0.009451 0.015436 0.025761 0.043302 0.072202 0.124061
2025-06-08 0.005253 0.008924 0.014933 0.025572 0.044138 0.075570 0.133591
2025-06-15 0.005033 0.008758 0.015006 0.026349 0.046669 0.081995 0.149038
2025-06-22 0.004546 0.008096 0.014194 0.025536 0.046378 0.083556 0.156044
2025-06-29 0.004186 0.007626 0.013673 0.025194 0.046900 0.086615 0.166133
2025-07-06 0.003776 0.007028 0.012869 0.024252 0.046208 0.087354 0.171836
2025-07-13 0.003650 0.006942 0.012989 0.025042 0.048856 0.094583 0.190909
2025-07-20 0.003511 0.006816 0.013019 0.025658 0.051213 0.101448 0.209921
2025-07-27 0.003398 0.006733 0.013120 0.026417 0.053914 0.109220 0.231570
2025-08-03 0.003180 0.006421 0.012750 0.026194 0.054586 0.112939 0.245006
2025-08-10 0.003008 0.006186 0.012511 0.026214 0.055761 0.117786 0.261343
2025-08-17 0.002807 0.005876 0.012095 0.025825 0.056023 0.120715 0.273705
2025-08-24 0.002697 0.005747 0.012041 0.026202 0.057978 0.127456 0.295370
2025-08-31 0.002542 0.005509 0.011739 0.026011 0.058650 0.131423 0.310986